A Bitter Lesson in Birmingham

While many members of the Campaign for Real Ale were sceptical about moving the Great British Beer Festival (GBBF) from its London home to the NEC in Birmingham, it is doubtful if many of us were prepared for how badly it would turn out.  A whopping £320,000 loss was surely not in anyone's mind, and must have exceeded by far the worst case scenario presented in the business case for it.

As someone who has worked at countless Great British Beer Festivals and organised or jointly organised the National Winter Ales Festival and latterly for a number of years, the Manchester Beer and Cider Festival - a large event in a very beery city - the thing that haunts you most is "Will anyone turn up and if they do, will they come in enough numbers to at least break even?"  You spend countless hours beforehand trying to size and scale the event to appeal to as many visitors as possible, and to offer them an attractive event that will make that, not only possible, but likely enough to write it all down in a proper business case and then convince the Campaign's Festival Scrutineers that it can be done.  In our case, and I'm sure at the NEC, organisers are getting hourly door counts to see how things are going. Firstly you need to pay the rent and if numbers look good, it is likely that the other main expense - beer - will take care of itself.  The relief when you see the numbers adding up is palpable.

I can only imagine the GBBF organiser's horror as door numbers were absorbed and the realisation that it wasn't going to be a success, and actually reaching the dreadful conclusion that the main question to consider was "How bad is it going to be?"  It is likely that realisation at the organising end of things, was an early one and that in the meantime, the show must go on. That must have been hard and I truly feel for them.

The Campaign, to its credit, did not try and hide the true horror of the loss and while it is easy to be wise after the event, the NEC did not appeal to many old hands for many fairly obvious reasons. It wasn't in a big city centre. The area wasn't that attractive and transport links would likely mean that casual visitors were unlikely and there would be no or little after work crew dropping in.  Above all, the NEC isn't an attractive building like Olympia, or indeed Manchester Central.  However, a business case must have been made, and it is hoped that this was on merit as it is tempting to some to think that holding this flagship event after cancellation the year before, was a now or never decision.  

So, what next for CAMRA?  The GBBF in its two forms (The winter event which was the National Winter Ales is now GBBF Winter) will now not take place, and likely will never take place again.  There will be a huge tightening of belts.  Writing to members Ash Corbett-Collins the National Chairman wrote:

• The Great British Beer Festival and its Winter counterpart did not attract enough visitors to cover the cost of holding them, resulting in a substantial loss.
• Our membership figures – like many other organisations – are simply not growing. The hard truth is we are unlikely to return to pre-2020 levels.
• Our festivals are getting more expensive to hold, with fewer affordable venues.
• The cost of running a membership organisation and business is also increasing. 

Ash finished as follows:

"While I hoped I would never need to send this message, my number one priority is seeing our Campaign survive and thrive. Our 50 plus year history must be protected and I am determined to see CAMRA continue for the next 50 years.

Doing nothing is not an option. If we do not act now, the stark reality is we will not exist in the future." 

CAMRA though, is not alone in this existential threat. All voluntary organisations are suffering the same effect. Younger people have other priorities nowadays. Either way, it does suggest that big CAMRA beer festivals will slowly die out as members get too decrepit for the physical effort. Demographics do tell the story here, and actually as folks get older, maybe targeting retirees than hopefully pursuing younger members is a better way of doing things, but this would inevitably change what we do - and in fact this is happening already.  Some festivals have been cancelled as there just aren't enough able volunteers

As I wrote on Seeing the Lizard's blog, Birmingham was CAMRA's Ardennes Offensive* - a last tilt and throw of the dice for GBBF, and while not as devastating, it will hasten an inevitable retreat. Though a collapse of the Campaign is unlikely - assuming it can overcome the loss - it will likely presage an emphasis on local campaigning and indeed, socialising, which is still an attractive part of the Campaign. (The national picture isn't always a main concern locally anyway.)  While us old gits are still alive we'll carry on and there will still be a bit of national lobbying while super complainant status is still with us. After that? Who knows, but it is hardly a bright picture overall.

In the meantime, as long as real ale - cask conditioned beer exists - there is a case to promote and protect it.  That presently, at least, means CAMRA, but the reputational damage is immense and the shock to the finances a heavy blow. I support Ash in steadying the ship, but he is correct to highlight the writing on the wall. 

 * The German's final large scale attack to ward off the inevitable defeat in the West during World War 2.

I also know that the cost of hiring venues, large and small is getting beyond CAMRA's means in many cases. Beer festivals are more difficult than ever, generally.